Hair-Brained Nutrition

I periodically suffer from low blood pressure. It causes light-headedness, headaches, and similar mild inconveniences. My doctor said, paraphrased, ‘yeah, that happens sometimes.’ It’s not bad, just sort-of annoying.

But it is sort-of annoying, so I searched the web, made the mistake of going to WebMD (discovering I had cancer, lupus, and am possibly pregnant), and found a little hippy website of nonsense. They had crystals to save my chakrahs. Exotic salts to open my pores. Grass-fed chicken.

But among the inane babble, they said that I might need to eat more salt. Typically I consume very low sodium sort-of by accident, sort-of by design, but several, admittedly garbage, references said that in dry, thin air, slightly increased salt intake can help with low blood pressure and light-headedness.

I tried it. It seems to be working. Anecdotal? Absolutely. Observational bias? Quite likely. But low cost, low risk? Yes.

The important thing here is to keep perspective. Don’t skip a vaccine or medical procedure because the web told you so. That’s unreasonable. But adding a little soy-sauce to a post workout meal is reasonable.

Deeper, critical thinking and cost-benefit analysis don’t lend themselves to absolutist interpretations. A little soy-sauce is just that, a little. The commentariat often interprets ‘a little’ as half a liter a day, because that way the commentariat can get upset, and the odd way internet algorithms work is by boosting extreme reactions.

I suppose this also ties into the information dearth. I’m not going into detail on my diet and water intake, so readers are welcome to extrapolate whatever they want. I may impel them to assume I eat nothing but junk food and sugar, or vegan cheese and kale. From there one can take whatever issuance one desires.

BTW, vegan cheese exists. It’s a term for non-cow-based cheese substitute. I didn’t know that, but it’s in the grocery store.

In Yeats’s Second Coming, he says, ‘The best lack all conviction,…’ Archilochus mentions, ‘The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.’ I feel like I’m touching on the edges of some deep buried truth, poorly understood, and my fingers, working where I can’t see, only roughly get its boundaries. But I think there’s something in there.

The thread of this poorly knitted thought is: If a hippy tells me to try the soy sauce, I’ll try the soy sauce. If they tell me to abandon the things I love, I won’t. I don’t believe in crystal healing, but I do like cool rocks.

Advertising

There were no ad blockers in print media, but there were no moving ads, auto-play ads, ads that hid the ‘close’ button, or ads that hijacked your viewing interface.

There were ads that misrepresented themselves.

Outlines

They’re distinctly unnatural, but that’s oddly useful. Guardrails and houses are unnatural, and in the wild, one doesn’t mistake them for anything else.

The Monty Hall Problem

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

The official answer is…switch. You double your odds of being right by switching.

This has led to some vigorous debate.

I read it in Jo Craven McGinty’s final column, instantly decided all of these idiots were wrong, and did some Matlabbery.

The idiots were right. You double your chances of being right by switching.

BUT WHY?

Let’s go chronologically.

Step 1:

The car is somewhere, the goats are somewhere. These positions are fixed. No car-goat switching shenanigans take place.

Step 2:

You pick a door.

You have 1/3 chance, 33.33….% chance of getting it right.

THAT IS IT. THIS GUESS IS DONE. THE CHANCE OF YOUR INITIAL GUESS BEING CORRECT IS FINISHED, COMPLETED, SET, and NOT CHANGING.

Step 3:

The host looks behind the doors and picks one with a goat. This door is opened. You, the contestant, can see the hosts door opened to reveal a goat.

Step 4:

You may change your guess to the other door.

This is where the magic happens.

That initial guess is locked at 1/3 chance, 33% (and hereafter I’m neglecting the .333… repeating). It cannot change. But there’s still an outstanding 2/3 chance of finding the car. The car has to be somewhere. Since you already know, for a fact, that there’s only 1/3 chance of your first guess being correct, and you know there’s 0% chance of it being behind the host’s door (remember, the host opened that door. You can see the goat), the remaining chance has to be behind the other door.

So switching has to improve your odds.

But it just doesn’t feel right, does it? Why not?

Because you think about things after they’re done.

If you picked your first guess after the host opened a door, then the two options would be 50/50, what feels right. But that’s not what happens. The first guess is made and locked BEFORE the host opens the door, so it has to be fixed at 1/3. The host doesn’t move the cars and goats around after opening a door, so the odds don’t reset.

Matlab: MontyHall
(Change ending from .txt to .m or copy and paste)

I suppose you also might want a goat. I’m neglecting that.