Leibniz Clockwork

“What if everyone else does it too?”

Deflation crops up from time to time as something the central banks fight. This is often a matter of some confusion, because on the face of it, deflation sounds like a good thing. As time goes by, our money gains in value. Prices go down. That means if you’re saving for something, the price will come down as your savings go up, and that seems pretty good.

Suppose you’re buying windows. Windows are expensive, so if we had deflation, one would save up and hope the price comes down.

Let’s apply the razor of economics. What happens if other people start reacting the same way?

Imagine everyone else was saving up and not buying windows, hoping the price would come down.

Installation professionals, contractors, and independent businessmen would go out of business, because they would have no business. Everyone was waiting and saving, remember.

A) They’re out of business, either on welfare or starving. B) They’re not buying windows from the manufacturers. C) They’re not buying anything because they have no money.

So the window manufacturers go out of business. The cycle repeats.

But it’s not just windows.

Imagine another business, a baker. The baker makes good bread.

The window installers aren’t buying good fresh-baked bread. They’re buying the cheapest bread they can, because they have no money. So the baker goes out of business.

And so on, and so on.

The world needs more books about the sidhe.

News outlets, papers, websites, and so forth have discovered that by running the picture of Tesla’s shorts, the red garment variety, they can show an attractive woman’s bum/crotch in the rather staid financial news pages.

This is not a surprise. No one is shocked.

But aside from that, Musk’s ongoing combative interactions with short sellers is something I take with a bit of salt.

To be fair, Occam’s Razor says Musk is just being weird, too connected, and probably unwise. In all likelihood, there is no meaning behind it.

However one should examine the effect of short sellers in the market, and that is almost purely good for Tesla.

A) Short-sellers must cover their shorts, so they’re another buyer in the market. That increases liquidity.

B) They must borrow their shares from someone. That increases liquidity. (The same effect happens via options, due to risk mitigation by the option seller)

C) They publish papers and coverage about Tesla. If one maintains that there’s no such thing as bad publicity, and that’s somewhat true for celebrities if not for companies, the additional news coverage, research, and attention devoted to Tesla will do nothing but strengthen the cult of Musk.

D) They give the followers of Musk a feeling of persecution, which further strengthens the bond between faceless company and individuals.

E) So much free PR.

F) And they really haven’t found anything useful. What do they discuss? Tesla hasn’t turned a profit yet? Everyone knows that. What they’re really doing is proving, again and again and again, that Tesla doesn’t have any dirty laundry beyond the obvious. Electric cars are a speculative play, but Tesla itself doesn’t cook its books. It isn’t committing fraud except in the most generic, Matt Levine style “Everything is Securities Fraud” interpretation, which most of the smaller investors just ignore. Most large investors ignore that too. What those shorts are doing is reminding every Tesla investor and Cult-of-Musk follower that Tesla has no secrets. It is what it is: a bet on rapid technological revolution.

G) Aside, they’re also reminding people that the new Teslas are pretty good cars.

SHORT SELLERS ARE GREAT FOR MUSK. Liquidity, free PR, constant affirmation, there is nothing that Tesla could want more than short interest. And Musk is making it personal. Every one of those shorts is, at some level, feeling like they’re betting against Musk, and that draws them in.

If I was Musk, I would be all in on battling the shorts. I would be doing EXACTLY what he is in the pure attempt at keeping their attention. I’d make it personal, I’d make it emotional, and I’d bang that drum day in and day out. I would want all the attention on them I could make, and I would certainly have some model’s bum on the financial pages with S3XY written in gold.

Of course, Musk is probably just doing this because he likes the attention and doesn’t know when to stop.

But if by witlessness one could succeed, it would be by doing exactly what he’s doing right now.

Are doing the right thing by opening their doors to Hong Kong residents. They’re both establishing pathways of immigration for the people of Hong Kong. I hope the US follows their lead.

I don’t live by your rules. I do double carriage returns and indents between paragraphs. Welcome to the future!

Bloomberg just ran an editorial called A Lower Covid 19 Death Rate is Nothing to Celebrate.

Dear God.

Of course it is! Are you really so consumed with malice that you’re unhappy fewer people are dying in a pandemic? Are your politics so bitter, your views so vile, your attitudes so drenched in gall and bile that the death rate going down isn’t good news for you? Let this be your sign; reevaluate your life choices if fewer people dying of a pandemic is something that makes you angry.

Google, via Android, just asked me why I don’t want to share my data if I don’t have anything to hide.

I noticed one source of my migraines is when I work out heavily while over-caffeinated.

This presents serious lifestyle problems.

Happy 4th of July.

Stay safe. This too shall pass.

Edited because wow, that did not read the way I meant it.