The Fed seems to believe that inflation is going to keep rising or will rise again the moment interest rates come down. A plurality of market participants seem to believe something else. I guess we’re gonna find out.
If Powell, Daly, et. al., are correct, the CPI or PCE indices should resume rising or hold the line. Declines in inflation will be more like a glide than a plunge. If the market participants are, the indices should drop more quickly. If the Fed’s right, you could trade this by buying VRNs. If the market is, buy stocks.
I’m not quite sure how to play the Fed blinking. Perhaps short term treasuries now and dumping them for stocks after the pivot? If the market blinks, buy slightly longer term treasuries and wait until the drop, then shift into stocks. Really, we’ll see who blinks in a few months, so either way, you’d want some dry powder to fire when a target pops up. The rule for Fast Freddie was be ready to move.
The thing about timing is you have to right at the right time, so if the Fed pivot is already in play, buy stocks now. Things are climbing. The alternative play is wait two or three years for current corporate debt to roll over and see who can’t refinance. They’ll tank, dragging down any market indices with them, and that will be a driver for increased inflation. Lyft and Uber have never turned meaningful profits, so if they can’t refinance and their investors shift to treasuries, they’ll go down with all the zombie corps that came out of San Francisco with such aplomb. But that will drive people out of gig-economy jobs and customers out of gig-economy shortcuts. People who don’t have cars will need to buy one, etc. That outcome is a deep recession in two to three years, followed by 60s and 70s style gut-wrenching. That play is 2-3 year notes followed by some outward transition. However always remember the problem with betting on a catastrophe is that if you win, you have a catastrophe.
To me, this is mostly theory crafting. For everyone involved in the real economy, stay safe and take care of yourselves.